FY 18 HUD Budget Cut Estimator Change Log

June 26th, 2017

• Reported Voucher and funding loss metrics are now based on HCV Renewal Funding and use inflation adjusted estimates for counties and participating jurisdictions where Housing Choice Voucher Renewal Funding Inflation Factors are available.

June 2nd, 2017

• Added Public Housing Operating Fund - Impact of Policy Changes section to state, county, and participating jurisdiction level views to estimate the effect of proposed policies on the average public housing household.

May 26th, 2017

• Corrected an error showing negative Section 811 estimate values for participating jurisdictions that suppress data for the privacy of residents.

May 23rd, 2017

• Major Update: Estimates now use FY 18 funding levels as proposed in the White House detailed budget estimate for the Department of Housing and Urban Development As a result total and individual program loss estimates for national, state, and participating jurisdiction views have changed significantly. Full budget available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget.
• Estimates for Section 202 Housing for the Elderly have been removed.

May 8th, 2017

• Major Update: Estimates now use FY17 funding levels as signed into law on May 5th, 2017 instead of FY16 funding levels. As a result total and individual program loss estimates for national, state, and participating jurisdiction views have changed significantly. Full bill available at H.R.244 - Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017.
• Section 202 Housing for the Elderly estimated losses added for county and participating jurisdiction level views.
• Section 811 Housing for Persons with Disabilities estimated losses added for county and participating jurisdiction level views.

May 5th, 2017

• A miscalculation when estimating Public Housing Capital Fund loss has been corrected for participating jurisdiction and state level views.

April 24th, 2017

• Section 202 Housing for the Elderly estimated losses added for state level views.
• Section 811 Housing for Persons with Disabilities estimated losses added for state level views.

April 20th, 2017

• CDBG and HOME totals for Counties now include participating jurisdictions within their boundaries.

April 19th, 2017

• Housing Choice Voucher estimates now use 2016 city, county, and state level data from the HUD Picture of Subsidized Households data tool.

April 11th, 2017

• CDBG activities data included from HUD CDBG Activity dataset.
• HOME activities data included from HUD HOME Activity dataset.

April 5th, 2017

• CDBG and HOME estimates now use data from the HUD Allocations and Awards report.

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Sources and Methodology

• White House 2018 Budget - Housing and Urban Development
• Housing Choice Voucher Renewal Funding Inflation Factors
• H.R.244 - Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities - Housing
• 2016 Picture of Subsidized Households
• HOME Activity
• CDBG Activity
• Allocations and Awards
• Public Housing Asset Management and Capital Fund
• National Housing Preservation Database

Section 811 and Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher loss estimates are derived from HUD's 2016 Picture of Subsidized Households tool. Specifically, the Average HUD Expenditure per month ($$) and Subsidized units available fields with the formula being

    Estimated Funding Lost = ( Subsidized units available × (Average HUD Expenditure per month × 12)) × Estimated FY 18 Budget Cut %
  

Estimates for Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher losses are additionally adjusted by 2016 and 2017 inflationary factors for county and participating jurisdiction views. However, because localized estimates for voucher and annual rent value losses are derived from data collected from 2015 to 2016 these estimates do not take into consideration new vouchers issued in 2017. Losses may be signficantly higher for jurisdictions who issue new vouchers through 2017.

Estimates for Section 811 through the Picture of Subsidized Housing have varying degrees of accuracy when reporting on the county and participating jurisdiction level. When calculating the Estimated Funding Lost we ignore records that meet the following criteria:

• The value for Subsidized units available is reported as -1, indicating the Subsidized units available and Average HUD Expenditure per month fields are missing.
• The value for Subsidized units available is reported as -4, indicating the Subsidized units available and Average HUD Expenditure per month fields are suppressed for the privacy of residents.
• The value for Subsidized units available is reported as -5, indicating the reporting rate of the participating jursidiction is less than 50%.
• The Place Code or FIPS Code is represented by "X" or missing, indicating the reporting jurisdiction did not include a valid address for the property or the property is located in a unincorporated, non-Census Designated Place.

Estimates for Public Housing units affected by cuts to the Capital Fund are derived from the number of standing units per property reported in Office of Capital Improvements reports.

Estimates for number of families in Public Housing affected by cuts to the Operating Fund are derived from the number of public housing units as reported by the National Housing Preservation Database.